News Desk
 
 
Minute Consolidation
July 24, 2017 09:45
 
Thursday's reaction from resistance around 45,729 — 45,891 levels has neutralized the bullish momentum. Immediate support between 44,397 and 44,121 levels is seen absorbing any selling pressure. The stochastic has started to point lower while the RSI remains flat giving mixed indications. Expect market entering a minute consolidation mode before looks set to challenge 45,729 — 45,891 levels for deeper recovery towards 46,885 (38% retracement) and 47,661 — 47,734 levels. Short-term stance remains mildly bullish subjected to closing sustainability above 44,121 level. As from wave count perspective, a break above 46,332 level would suggest an end to the A-B-C corrective sequence.

According to our preferred Elliot wave count, the 4th intermediate corrective wave of fifth primary degree rise completed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of last intermediate run (Feb’16 to May’17) at 44,397 level. The critical resistance between 50,111 and 50,666 levels hold the key to new highs. Any further pressure below 44,397 level can possibly expose the 50% retracement around 41,701 level. If our count is correct then completion of intermediate correction should resume the bullish trend for new highs beyond May’17 high (53,127) to complete the fifth Primary cycle.

13-day Leaders: IBFL, PPL, SSGC, PAKT, NATF, APL, CJPL, SNBL, OGDC & EFUG

13-day Laggards: HCAR, BATA, PSMC, HUMNL, FCCL, POML, PICT, PIOC, FML & JGICL
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Awaiting A Trigger
July 17, 2017 09:19
 
The tweezers support anchored at 43,050 level allowed a recovery on Friday where the index gained 1.26% (553 +ve) to settle at 44,337 level. We prefer to hold a neutral stance at present. Immediate strength towards 44,797 level is required to explore possibility of strength towards 45,729 — 45,891 and 47,661 — 47,734 levels. On the downside, a relapse below 43,027 level will resume the downwards trend exposing next possible support around 41,701 level, forming a confluence with a) Long-term trend line at 41,925 level developed by joining April 2008 high and Feb 2015 high on the monthly chart, b) 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of Jan 2009 to May 2017 rise at 41,717 level, c) 50% Fibonacci retracement of Feb 2017 to May 2017 rise at 41,701 level and d) 377-day Fibonacci simple moving average at 41,676 level (curving upwards). We find the index in the last leg (wave 5) of wave C to complete the A-B-C corrective sequence. The daily stochastic is recovering with the 14-day RSI forming a bullish divergence near oversold readings. A break above 46,308 level is required to suggest an end to the corrective sequence and activate a bullish reversal towards 48,555 level.

According to our preferred Elliot wave count, the 4th intermediate wave of fifth primary degree rise has exceeded the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of last intermediate run (Feb’16 to May’17) at 44,397 level. Further pressure can possibly expose the 50% retracement around 41,701 level. Below there, the deeper 61.8% Fibonacci retracement resides around 39,004 level. The critical resistance between 50,111 and 50,666 levels hold the key to new highs. If our count is correct then completion of intermediate correction should resume the bullish trend for new highs beyond May’17 high (53,127) to complete the fifth Primary cycle.

13-day Leaders: PMPK, SNBL, PPL, NATF, SSGC, PAKT, IBFL, IGIIL, MUREB & BOP

13-day Laggards: HCAR, BATA, PSMC, TRG, ISL, PICT, FML, FEROZ, GLAXO & NRL
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Pennant
July 10, 2017 09:18
 
Chances of downside break are higher after Wednesday’s failed attempt to overcome the down trend line. Inability to clear the pennant resistance at 46,358 level can trigger bearish continuation below 44,328 level towards 43,552 and 41,817 levels. On the upside, a break above 46,358 level will call for bullish reversal towards 48,476 and 49,574 levels. Contracting volume on the downside and diverging momentum readings indicate that the correction is in the last leg down (wave 5 of wave C) of the A-B-C sequence.

According to our preferred Elliot wave count, the index correcting lower in 4th intermediate wave of the fifth primary degree rise has completed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of last intermediate run (Feb’16 to May’17) at 44,397 level. In a case of further pressure, the 50% retracement comes around 41,701 level coinciding with the Fibonacci average (377-day) at 41,459 level. The critical resistance between 50,111 and 50,666 levels hold the key to new highs. If the count is correct then completion of intermediate correction will probably resume the bullish trend for new highs beyond May’17 high (53,127) to complete the fifth Primary cycle.

13-day Leaders: PMPK, IBFL, PAKT, NML, JLICL, MLCF, SNBL, ARM, SSGC & NPL

13-day Laggards: FEROZ, JDWS, TRG, NRL, HCAR, BATA, POML, ISL, INDU & PGF
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Pennant
July 7, 2017 09:09
 
Chances of downside break are higher after Wednesday’s failed attempt to overcome the down trend line. Inability to clear the pennant resistance at 46,358 level can trigger bearish continuation below 44,328 level towards 43,552 and 41,817 levels. On the upside, a break above 46,358 level will call for bullish reversal towards 48,476 and 49,574 levels. Contracting volume on the downside and diverging momentum readings indicate that the correction is in the last leg down (wave 5 of wave C) of the A-B-C sequence.

According to our preferred Elliot wave count, the index correcting lower in 4th intermediate wave of the fifth primary degree rise has completed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of last intermediate run (Feb’16 to May’17) at 44,397 level. In a case of further pressure, the 50% retracement comes around 41,701 level coinciding with the Fibonacci average (377-day) at 41,459 level. The critical resistance between 50,111 and 50,666 levels hold the key to new highs. If the count is correct then completion of intermediate correction will probably resume the bullish trend for new highs beyond May’17 high (53,127) to complete the fifth Primary cycle.

13-day Leaders: PMPK, PAKT, JLICL, NCPL, IBFL, NML, NESTLE, MLCF, MUREB & ARM

13-day Laggards: TRG, FEROZ, ISL, CJPL, JDWS, NRL, BATA, OLPL, POML & PGF
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Technical View
July 6, 2017 09:52
 
By way of a highly reactive candle, the index failed to register a break above the falling trend line yesterday. Hold a neutral stance at present. Any immediate weakness towards 434,740 level will expose further pressure towards 43,740 and 42,123 levels. A closing break above 46,214 level is required to clear the way for bullish reversal towards 48,476 and 49,574 levels. The 14-day RSI recovering from oversold region needs a reading above 39.08 to confirm the bullish signal. On the other hand, the stochastic oscillator is still pointing lower so one should wait for the confirmation. Contracting volume on the downside and diverging momentum readings indicate that the correction is in the last leg down (wave 5 of wave C) of the A-B-C sequence.

According to our preferred Elliot wave count, the index correcting lower in 4th intermediate wave of the fifth primary degree rise has completed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of last intermediate run (Feb’16 to May’17) at 44,397 level. In a case of further pressure, the 50% retracement comes around 41,701 level coinciding with the Fibonacci average (377-day) at 41,425 level. The critical resistance between 50,111 and 50,666 levels hold the key to new highs. If the count is correct then completion of intermediate correction will probably resume the bullish trend for new highs beyond May’17 high (53,127) to complete the fifth Primary cycle.

13-day Leaders: PMPK, NML, PAKT, JLICL, FATIMA, NPL, NCPL, MUREB, ARM & MLCF

13-day Laggards: TRG, FEROZ, ISL, JDWS, CJPL, BATA, POML, NRL, GHGL & ACPL
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Support Anchored?
July 5, 2017 09:17
 
The KSE 100-Index gained 1.63% (728 points +ve) yesterday led by PPL, OGDC, ENGRO, HUBC, FFC, DGKC & PSO. Support around 44,397 level managed to halt the downwards trend as bulls took advantage of contracting volume and diverging momentum readings. The falling trend line is under challenge around 46,100 level where a closing break above the aforesaid resistance should clear the way for bullish reversal towards 48,476 and 49,574 levels. The 14-day RSI recovering from oversold region needs a reading above 39.08 to confirm the bullish signal. On the other hand, the stochastic oscillator is still pointing lower so one should wait for the confirmation.

On the flipside, a closing break below 44,397 level will expose the last low at 43,826 level where further selling can possibly expose the 50% retracement of last intermediate run (Feb’16 to May’17) at 41,701 level —coinciding with the Fibonacci average (377-day) at 41,392 level. Contracting volume on the downside and diverging momentum readings indicate that the correction is in the last leg down (wave 5 of wave C) of the A-B-C sequence.

According to our preferred Elliot wave count, the index correcting lower in 4th intermediate wave of the fifth primary degree rise has completed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of last intermediate run (Feb’16 to May’17) at 44,397 level. In a case of further pressure, the 50% retracement comes around 41,701 level coinciding with the Fibonacci average (377-day) at 41,425 level. The critical resistance between 50,111 and 50,666 levels hold the key to new highs. If the count is correct then completion of intermediate correction will probably resume the bullish trend for new highs beyond May’17 high (53,127) to complete the fifth Primary cycle.

13-day Leaders: PMPK, JLICL, PAKT, NPL, ARM, NESTLE, FATIMA, NCPL, KTML & PSEL

13-day Laggards: CJPL, TRG, FEROZ, ISL, JDWS, GHGL, SEARL, ACPL, BATA & PGF
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Pressure Resumes Amid Diverging Readings
July 4, 2017 09:28
 
The KSE 100-Index plummeted 4.08% (-ve 1899 points) yesterday led by HBL, UBL, LUCK, OGDC, MCB & ENGRO. Selling pressure was witnessed all across the board on mounting political concerns. Technically speak, the index has resumed the selling pressure where weakness below 44,397 level can induce pressure towards the last low at 43,826 level. A lower low will possibly expose the 50% retracement of last intermediate run (Feb’16 to May’17) at 41,701 level coinciding with the Fibonacci average (377-day) at 41,392 level. A closing break above 45,729 level is required to mitigate such weakness. Falling volume and diverging momentum readings indicate that this could be the last leg down (wave 5 of wave C) of the corrective sequence.

According to our preferred Elliot wave count, the index is possibly correcting lower in 4th intermediate wave of the fifth primary degree rise. The correction has completed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of last intermediate run (Feb’16 to May’17) at 44,397 level. In case of further correction, the 50% retracement comes around 41,701 level coinciding with the Fibonacci average (377-day) at 41,285 level. The critical resistance between 50,111 and 50,666 levels hold the key to new highs. If the count is correct then completion of intermediate correction will resume the bullish trend for new highs beyond May’17 high (53,127) to complete the fifth Primary cycle.

13-day Leaders: PMPK, PAKT, ARM, JLICL, NESTLE, NPL, PSEL, NCPL, JGICL & DCR

13-day Laggards: TRG, FEROZ, CJPL, ISL, JDWS, SEARL, PKGS, CPPL, SNGP & ATRL
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Shaking Confidence
June 19, 2017 09:58
 
The benchmark PSX registered a close below the tentative channel support line on Friday. This puts April’17 low of 46,048 level under threat with intervening 200-day average at 46,503 level. The short-term trend remains down amid grossly oversold readings on most of the constituents (i.e FFC, SHEL, OGDC, PPL, PKGS, PSO, PKGS & TRG). Weak buy signals were triggered in NCPL (Stochastic Oscillator) & MLCF (Bollinger / RSI) while thirty stocks continued to dig lower closings (see page 2 for the score sheet). Mean reversion should be the likely scenario in sessions ahead as the index nears the 233-day Fibonacci average at 45,522 level.

If immediate weakness persists to violate the April’17 low of 46,048 level then such action will confirm interruption of intermediate bull trend to possibly expose 44,713 level —inner support around 45,522 level seen allowing mean reversion towards 48,555 level. Any instant recovery through 47,531 level will seek relief towards 48,555 — 49,113 levels. Resistance fenced between 50,111 and 50,666 levels now holds the key to new highs.

After a bottom marked in 2009, the index has witnessed 10 intermediate degree falls with an average decline of 13.17 percent (maximum -18.3% / minimum -6.72%). Considering that the benchmark has fallen 12% only in the last 16 trading sessions, traders are advised to not to panic and wait for recovery due on grossly oversold readings.

According to our preferred Elliot wave count, the index is possibly correcting lower in the fourth intermediate degree wave of the fifth primary degree rise. In the process, the correction has exceeded the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (47,734) of last intermediate run from 30,275 to 53,127 levels (Feb’16 to May’17). In case of further correction, the 38.2% and 50% retracements are placed around 44,397 and 41,701 levels, respectively. If the count is correct then termination of ensuing intermediate correction will resume the bullish trend towards May’17 high (53,127) and 61,600 level to complete the fifth Primary cycle.

13-day Leaders: PMPK, PSEL, JLICL, SHFA, ARM, COLG, NESTLE, PAKT, JGICL, INDU

13-day Laggards: OGDC, PPL, IDYM, SHEL, BATA, SCBPL, PSO, FCCL, TRG & ENGRO
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On Track
May 8, 2017 09:40
 
After completing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 46,048 to 50,304 rise at 48,678 level, the index has registered a strong recovery. We maintain a bullish stance on the index where strength above 50,300 level will explore new highs above 50,886 level —setting initial gaze towards 52,112 level. Immediate support around 49,418 level is seen absorbing any selling pressure. Continue to prefer Banks, Insurance, OMCs, Refineries & Utilities. Trading plays include MCB, TRG, FCCL, SHEL, PSO, TPL, ATRL, TREET, HASCOL, HTL, AICL, SNGP, SSGC, STCL, SEPL, KEL & LOTCHEM.

13-day Leaders: GHGL, FABL, PSMC, PAEL, INDU, FML, THALL, MTL, BAFL & HCAR

13-day Laggards: PSEL, FEROZ, NESTLE, SEARL, POL, IBFL, BATA, IDYM, ARM & BNWM
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The Coast Is Clear
April 21, 2017 09:17
 
Recent market action (volume, trend and momentum) suggests an end to the 12-week minor correction / consolidation phase. The KSE 100-index seems all set for initial stride towards 50,300 and 53,000 levels with support clustered between 48,187 and 47,778 levels seen absorbing any selling pressure. We continue to prefer Banks, Insurance, OMCs, Refineries & Utilities. Preferred plays include MCB, TRG, FCCL, SHEL, PSO, TPL, TREET, HASCOL, HTL, AICL, SNGP, SSGC, STCL, SEPL, KEL & LOTCHEM.

13-day Leaders: HASCOL, SSGC, PSMC, PAEL, PMPK, PPL, POML, FEROZ, PIOC & GHGL

13-day Laggards: ISL, EFUG, BNWM, CJPL, NCL, FATIMA, FML, PAKT, GLAXO & MCB
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Early To Call A Bottom
April 20, 2017 09:57
 
A high volatile session was witnessed yesterday where the index after falling 826 points (46,048 level) in the early trade recovered sharply to hit a high of 47,715 level (841+ve) towards the session end. High volatility shows investors anxiety which is normally seen near the market extremes, but its early to call a bottom as minor correction / consolidation mode remains in place below 48,757 level. Inner resistance around 47,871 level is seen neutralizing immediate recovery attempt. A relapse below 46,436 level can deepen the correction towards 45,312 and 44,115 levels. Investors are advised to accumulate Banks, Insurance, OMCs, Refineries & Utilities on such weakness as primary direction remains bullish. Preferred investment plays include MCB, SHEL, PSO, HTL, AICL, SNGP, SSGC, STCL, SEPL, KEL & LOTCHEM.

13-day Leaders: HASCOL, PMPK, SSGC, HCAR, INDU, PSMC, PPL, PAEL, POL & FEROZ

13-day Laggards: BOP, NCL, CJPL, FATIMA, ISL, GLAXO, JDWS, FABL, ENGRO & FFC
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Correction Mode
April 17, 2017 09:34
 
Market remains trapped in a minor correction / consolidation mode with falling daily momentum readings. Immediate resistance clustered between 47,871 and 48,529 levels is seen keeping the upside on check. A relapse below 47,420 level can expose weakness towards 45,627 level. In worst case scenario, the correction may deepen up to 45,627 and 44,115 levels. A sustained break above 49,214 level is required to suggest an end to the consolidation phase and refresh the bullish progression for new highs. Investors are advised to accumulate Banks, Insurance, OMCs, Refineries & Utilities on dips as primary direction remains bullish. Preferred investment plays include MCB, SHEL, PSO, HTL, AICL, SNGP, SSGC, STCL, SEPL, KEL & LOTCHEM.

13-day Leaders: PMPK, MARI, FEROZ, SSGC, PAEL, PPL, ABOT, SEARL, INDU, NESTLE & PSEL

13-day Laggards: BOP, NCL, RFOODS, CJPL, NML, FABL, AICL, ENGRO, BNWM, NBP & IDYM
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In A Correction Mode
April 3, 2017 09:32
 
Market is trapped in a minor correction / consolidation mode below the 21-day average (48,863) where relapse (close) below 48,100 level can explore possibility of deeper correction towards 47,420 and 45,627 levels. Immediate resistance is clustered between 48,529 and 48,757 levels. On the upside, a break above 49,214 level is required to suggest an end to the consolidation phase and refresh the bullish progression. Investors are advised to accumulate Banks, Insurance, OMCs, Refineries & Utilities on dips. Preferred investment plays include MCB, SHEL, PSO, HTL, AICL, SNGP, SSGC, STCL, SEPL, KEL & LOTCHEM.

13-day Leaders: ASRL, PMPK, MARI, JLICL, EFUG, MEBL, IBFL, JSCL, PAKT & SNGP

13-day Laggards: KEL, SSGC, POML, EFOODS, HASCOL, IDYM, COLG, RMPL, AKBL & FABL
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Not Out Of The Woods Yet
March 28, 2017 09:35
 
The index is finding difficulty in gaining foot-hold above the 21-day average (48,961 level). Market remains in a minor correction / consolidation mode below 49,822 level where relapse below 48,100 level can explore possibility of deeper correction towards 47,420 and 45,627 levels. Immediate resistance is clustered around 49,214 level. On the upside, strength towards 49,790 level is required to suggest an end to the correction / consolidation phase and refresh the intermediate bullish trend towards 53,051 level. Investors are advised to accumulate Banks, Insurance, OMCs, Refineries & Utilities on dips. Preferred investment plays include MCB, SHEL, PSO, HTL, AICL, SNGP, SSGC, STCL, SEPL, KEL & LOTCHEM.

13-day Leaders: ASRL, COLG, JLICL, BOP, FML, SNBL, SPWL, MEBL, PSEL & EFUG

13-day Laggards: KEL, SSGC, PPL, TRG, HMB, MARI, UBL, OGDC, PSO & POL
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Reclaiming Averages
March 3, 2017 10:52
 
By way of a gap-up candle, the index managed to gain foot-hold above the 21-day average (49,384) yesterday. The strength is pointing at 50,313 level which at best may stretch up to 51,653 level. This view will remain valid till 8th March only. Immediate supports reside around 49,485 and 48,974 levels. A closing break below the later support will expose lower lows below 48,146 level. Preferred investment plays include MCB, SHEL, PSO, HTL, AICL, SNGP, SSGC, STCL, SEPL, KEL & LOTCHEM.

13-day Leaders: IDYM, ASRL, PGF, MTL, CSAP, SNGP, PAKT, SSGC, JLICL & BWCL

13-day Laggards: FML, NPL, NCPL, NCL, DAWH, ISL, AKBL, PMPK, HASCOL & SCBPL
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Easing Momentum
February 27, 2017 10:26
 
The index is placed below the key 21-day moving average (49,451 level) with easing daily momentum readings. Immediate resistance clustered between 49,214 and 49,768 levels is seen keeping the upside on check. A relapse below 48,529 level can expose deeper correction towards 47,420 and 45,627 levels. A sustained closing break above 49,893 level is required to explore new highs above 50,886 level. Preferred trading plays include MCB, SHEL, PSO, AICL, SNGP, SSGC, STCL, KEL & LOTCHEM.

13-day Leaders: ASRL, JLICL, SHEL, IDYM, SNGP, SSGC, BWCL, PIOC, SRVI & NESTLE

13-day Laggards: JSCL, ISL, AKBL, PTC, TRG, NPL, NPL, EFOODS, FEROZ & FML
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Defying Gravity
December 15, 2016 09:20
 
Despite heating daily momentum readings, the benchmark KSE continues to march higher. With any downside seen cushioned by supports clustered between 45,270 and 44,525 levels, the bullish trend may extend up to 46,767 and 47,692 levels. A three-day closing break below 43,774 level will terminate the bullish progression and induce near-term correction. Preferred trading plays include PPL, OGDC, PSO, SHEL, ENGRO, PAEL, NBP, MCB, IGIIL, AICL & KEL

13-day Leaders: MARI, PMPK, ICI, NATF, IDYM, POL, LUCK, MEBL, ASRL & MTL

13-day Laggards: SSGC, BOP, NCL, FML, HASCOL, PAEL, ARM, FFBL, SHFA & OLPL
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Bullish Trend Continues Amid Heating Momentum
December 13, 2016 09:20
 
The bullish trend continues amid heating daily momentum readings. Expect continuation towards 46,767 level with immediate support placed around 44,525 level. A three-day closing break below 43,774 level will terminate the bullish progression and induce near-term correction. Preferred trading plays include PPL, OGDC, PSO, SHEL, ENGRO, PAEL, NBP, MCB, IGIIL, AICL & KEL

13-day Leaders: IDYM, NATF, BWCL, ASRL, IGIIL, MARI, LUCK, ICI, SRVI & DGKC

13-day Laggards: SSGC, SNGP, BOP, HASCOL, JSCL, PAEL, PICT, COLG, CPPL & TRG
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Resistance Expected Around 43,497 Level
November 14, 2016 09:08
 
The index can extend its rally up to 43,497 level (valid for 3 sessions only) rising in wave v to complete the bullish cycle for minute wave 1. Immediate support resides around 42,678 level. A relapse below 42,171 level would terminate the bullish sequence and expose short-term correction in wave 2.

General Outlook: According to our preferred Elliott wave count, the index striding in the fifth primary degree wave has attained first objective of 42,159 level. This wave can stretch beyond level 45,000 level with any minute correction seen neutralized by a strong cluster of supports between 37,432 and 34,511 levels. It is advised to keep enough liquidity to accumulate positions on such correction. Preferred sectors include banks, oil & gas, utilities and textiles.

13-day Leaders: ISL, SSGC, ICI, MTL, MLCF, FABL, FCCL, PIOC, NCL & IBFL

13-day Laggards: MUREB, COLG, CPPL, BNWM, PAKT, GHGL, OLPL, HUBC, HUMNL & OGDC
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Breakdown From Rising Wedge Likely
October 25, 2016 09:10
 
The benchmark KSE slid 1.06% yesterday towards the lower boundary of rising wedge pattern which has been worrying me recently. Expect pressure building towards 40,688 and 40,070 levels with nearby resistance levels placed around 41,070 and 41,306 levels.

Trading Picks Include PSO, HUMNL, NRL, FFC & EFERT

General Outlook: According to our preferred Elliott wave count, the index is striding in the fifth primary degree wave possibly scoping for 42,159 level which may stretch beyond 45,000 level. Any minute correction would seek support between 37,432 and 34,511 levels. It is advised to keep enough liquidity to accumulate positions on such correction. Preferred sectors include banks, oil & gas, utilities and textiles.

13-day Leaders: PMPK, HASCOL, SNGP, APL, NESTLE, GHGL, CSAP, JDWS, BOP & COLG

13-day Laggards: MUREB, OLPL, KOHC, SRVI, BWCL, NATF, FATIMA, FEROZ, PTC & ISL
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