| 50% Retracement Completed |
| April 9, 2015 09:03 |
| |
Short-Term:
Led by a late relief in oil sector, the benchmark KSE closed marginally above the 50% retracement of last fall (35,055 to 28,648) at 31,852 level yesterday. Expect exhaustion in upwards momentum sighting initial reaction towards 31,291 and 30,761— 30,433 levels. General theme remains corrective below the modified Ichimoku cloud (32,276 — 32,739) and minor wave iv high of 32,961 level. In the process of this upwards relief in wave B, the 14-day RSI (51.06) can recover maximum up to 55 to 65 readings. Investors are advised to avail this relief as an opportunity to reduce exposure awaiting a fall in wave C to re-enter.
13-day Leaders: JSCL, PUNO, NCPL, PAKT, PKGP, PAEL, DAWH, PIBTL, TRG & MLCF
13-day Laggards: BOP, PSEL, LPCL, COLG, SRVI, JDWS, HUMNL, HBL, SHEL & PKGS |
| --------------------------------------------- |
| Expect Resistance Around 31,852 Level |
| April 7, 2015 09:04 |
| |
Short-Term:
Relentless relief rally continues for the fifth consecutive session with the benchmark KSE nearing the 50% retracement of last fall (35,055 to 28,648) at 31,852 level, coinciding with the 144-DMA (31,842). Expect exhaustion in upwards momentum as the index approaches the aforementioned resistance. Any reaction may induce initial pressure towards 30,761— 30,433 levels. General theme remains corrective below the modified Ichimoku cloud (32,337 — 32,739) and minor wave iv high of 32,961 level. In the process of this upwards relief in wave B, the 14-day RSI (49.64) can recover maximum up to 55 to 65 readings. Investors are advised to avail this relief as an opportunity to reduce exposure awaiting a fall in wave C to re-enter.
13-day Leaders: JSCL, PAKT, HCAR, MLCF, NPL, NCPL, PKGP, TRG, PTC & DAWH
13-day Laggards: PSEL, BOP, COLG, SRVI, JDWS, IDYM, ARM, RMPL & OGDC |
| --------------------------------------------- |
| Expect Resistance Around 31,852 Level |
| April 6, 2015 09:05 |
| |
Short-Term:
Relief rally continues for the fourth consecutive session with the benchmark KSE nearing the 50% retracement of last fall (35,055 to 28,648) at 31,852 level, coinciding with the 144-DMA (31,827). Expect exhaustion in upwards momentum as the index approaches the aforementioned resistance. Any reaction may induce initial pressure towards 30,761— 30,433 levels. In the process of this upwards relief in wave B, the 14-day RSI (46.40) can recover maximum up to 55 to 65 readings. Investors are advised to avail this relief as an opportunity to reduce exposure awaiting a fall in wave C to re-enter.
13-day Leaders: PAKT, NPL, JSCL, NCPL, FCCL, SNBL, IBFL, ABOT, MLCF & TRG
13-day Laggards: BOP, JDWS, ARPL, SRVI, PSEL, ICI, ARM, OGDC, POL & IDYM |
| --------------------------------------------- |
| Upwards Relief Nearing An Exhaustion Point |
| April 3, 2015 08:48 |
| |
Short-Term:
Extending recovery for the third consecutive session, the benchmark KSE gained 1.72% yesterday —completing the 38.2% retracement of recent fall (35,055 to 28,648) at 31,095 level. Expect additional strength towards 31,291 level. Above there, a strong resistance is clustered within 31,555 — 31,852 levels containing the 144-DMA (31,814). Any reaction from the aforementioned resistance levels can induce pressure towards 30,761 level. In the process of this upwards relief in wave B, the 14-day RSI (43.58) can recover maximum up to 55 to 65 readings. Investors are advised to avail this relief as an opportunity to reduce exposure awaiting a fall in wave C to re-enter.
General Outlook:
After marking the third primary degree top at Feb’15 high of 35,055 level, market completed the first impulsive corrective sequence (wave A) at the minimum 23.6% retracement of a multi-year rise from Jan’12 low of 10,771 to Feb’15 high of 35,055 at 29,324 level. The index is recovering in wave B to retrace some portion of recent fall and relive the daily oversold readings. At termination on this upwards adjustment we can expect the market diving in second round of bearish spell to much deeper correction in wave C which can possibly expose Aug’14 lows around 28,179 — 27,354 levels and even the 38.2% retracement around 25,779 level. Wait for a bottom!
13-day Leaders: PAKT, NPL, NCPL, IBFL, ABOT, FFC, FFBL, NATF, FCCL & EFUG
13-day Laggards: BOP, JDWS, ARPL, PSEL, KOHC, ICI, ARM, PSMC & SRVI |
| --------------------------------------------- |
| Upwards Relief |
| April 2, 2015 09:29 |
| |
Short-Term:
In a follow through of Tuesday’s recovery, the benchmark KSE gained 1.23% yesterday to hit the 233-DMA at 30,787 level. Expect additional strength towards 31,095 — 31,291 levels (38.2% retracement) with immediate support clustered within 30,231 — 29,903 levels seen neutralizing any selling pressure. In the process of this upwards relief in wave B, the 14-day RSI (37.92) can recover maximum up to 55 to 65 readings. Investors are advised to avail this relief as an opportunity to reduce exposure awaiting a fall in wave C to re-enter.
General Outlook:
After marking the third primary degree top at Feb’15 high of 35,055 level, market completed the first impulsive corrective sequence (wave A) at the minimum 23.6% retracement of a multi-year rise from Jan’12 low of 10,771 to Feb’15 high of 35,055 at 29,324 level. The index is recovering in wave B to retrace some portion of recent fall and relive the daily oversold readings. At termination on this upwards adjustment we can expect the market diving in second round of bearish spell to much deeper correction in wave C which can possibly expose Aug’14 lows around 28,179 — 27,354 levels and even the 38.2% retracement around 25,779 level. Wait for a bottom!
13-day Leaders: PAKT, NPL, NCPL, ABOT, FML, FCC, NATF, SHEZ, NESTLE & JLICL
13-day Laggards: NETSOL, BOP, PSEL, PSMC, KOHC, HUMNL, PCAL, AICL, LOTCHEM & ARPL |
| --------------------------------------------- |
| The 377-DMA On Test Amid Grossly Oversold Readings |
| April 2, 2015 09:11 |
| |
Short-Term:
Meltdown continued for the fifth consecutive session with the benchmark KSE hitting the 377-day average at 28,669 level yesterday —completing the minimum 23.6% retracement of a multi-year rise at 29,324 level. Today, strength above 29,334 level is required to suggest completion of first corrective sequence (wave A) and allow a relief rally towards 30,713 and 31,555 levels in wave B. On the downside, a relapse below 28,648 level would perpetuate weakness towards Sep’14 gap within 28,179 — 27,866 levels.
13-day Leaders: PAKT, MUREB, FML, JLICL, SHEZ, NESTLE, NATF, SCBPL, NPL & MARI
13-day Laggards: BOP, NETSOL, AICL, FABL, LOTCHEM, KEL, PSMC, AKBL, ATRL & JDWS |
| --------------------------------------------- |
| Finally A Relief |
| April 1, 2015 09:01 |
| |
Short-Term:
Snapping a five-day fall, the benchmark KSE gained 4.52% yesterday to complete the 23.6% retracement of recent decent (35,055—28,648) at 30,160 level in wave B. Expect further recovery towards 30,781 — 31,095 levels —forming a confluence area with the 233-DMA and the 38.2% retracement. In the process of this upwards relief, the 14-day RSI (33.56) can recover maximum up to 55 to 65 readings. Investors are advised to avail this relief as an opportunity to reduce exposure awaiting a fall in wave C to reenter.
General Outlook:
After marking the third primary degree top at Feb’15 high of 35,055 level, market completed the first impulsive corrective sequence (wave A) at the minimum 23.6% retracement of a multi-year rise from Jan’12 low of 10,771 to Feb’15 high of 35,055 at 29,324 level. The index rising in wave B to retrace some portion of recent fall and relive the daily oversold readings. At termination on this upwards adjustment can expect the market diving in second round of bearish spell to much deeper correction in wave C which can possibly expose Aug’14 lows around 28,179 — 27,354 levels and even the 38.2% retracement around 25,779 level. Wait for a bottom!
13-day Leaders: PAKT, NATF, NPL, MARI, SCBPL, FML, NCPL, SHEZ, NESTLE & FFC
13-day Laggards: NESTLE, BOP, PSMC, AICL, AVN, KOHC, HUMNL, ATRL, IGIIL & JDWS |
| --------------------------------------------- |
| The 377-DMA On Test Amid Grossly Oversold Readings |
| March 31, 2015 08:49 |
| |
Short-Term:
Meltdown continued for the fifth consecutive session with the benchmark KSE hitting the 377-day average at 28,669 level yesterday —completing the minimum 23.6% retracement of a multi-year rise at 29,324 level. Today, strength above 29,334 level is required to suggest completion of first corrective sequence (wave A) and allow a relief rally towards 30,713 and 31,555 levels in wave B. On the downside, a relapse below 28,648 level would perpetuate weakness towards Sep’14 gap within 28,179 — 27,866 levels.
General Outlook:
After marking the third primary degree top at Feb’15 high of 35,055 level, market continues fall in the first impulsive corrective sequence (wave A) where it has completed the minimum 23.6% retracement of its rise from Jan’12 low of 10,771 to Feb’15 high of 35,055 level at 29,324 level. We expect market to soon register a relief rally in wave B to retrace some portion of recent fall and relive the daily oversold readings. After such an upwards adjustment we can expect the market diving in second round of bearish spell to much deeper correction in wave C which can possibly expose Aug’14 lows around 28,179 — 27,354 levels and even the 38.2% retracement around 25,779 level. Wait for a bottom!
13-day Leaders: PAKT, MUREB, FML, JLICL, SHEZ, NESTLE, NATF, SCBPL, NPL & MARI
13-day Laggards: BOP, NETSOL, AICL, FABL, LOTCHEM, KEL, PSMC, AKBL, ATRL & JDWS |
| --------------------------------------------- |
| Correction Continues Into Grossly Oversold Readings |
| March 30, 2015 08:59 |
| |
Short-Term:
Market continues to slide extending the first corrective wave (A) into deeply oversold conditions with the 14-day RSI reading at 17.61. The first major support on the downside resides around 29,392 — 29,324 levels where the index would complete the 23.6% retracement of its multi-year rise. At completion of ensuing corrective sequence the market would register an upwards relief initially towards 31,555 level to retrace some portion of recent descend in wave B. Recovery through 30,828 level would confirm that market has completed the first corrective sequence.
13-day Leaders: NPL, PAKT, MARI, FML, HUBC, JLICL, SHEZ, TRG, NESTLE & NCPL
13-day Laggards: BOP, AICL, NETSOL, DAWH, PSMC< ATRL, JDWS, NBP, AKBL & PKGS |
| --------------------------------------------- |
| Emotional Extremes |
| March 27, 2015 09:51 |
| |
Short-Term:
Yesterday’s high volume candle reflects emotional extremes at deeply oversold daily readings. This indicates that the first leg of correction (wave A) has reached selling climax and a reversal is due. We expect market registering a relief rally towards 31,325 and 32,038 levels in wave B to retrace some portion of recent fall from 35,055 to 30,172 levels. However, general theme would still remain bearish.
General Outlook:
After marking the fifth intermediate degree top at Feb’15 high of 35,055 level, market continues weaken in the first impulsive corrective sequence where it has violated the Dec’14 low of 30,562 level, marked as A. We expect market to soon register a relief rally in B to retrace some portion of recent fall. After such an upwards adjustment we can expect the market diving in second round of bearish spell to much deeper correction in wave C which can possibly push the index down towards 29,392 level, projected by mid of May’15. Guideline also indicates that this correction might extend towards the Aug’14 lows around 28,179 — 27,354 levels. Wait for a bottom!
13-day Leaders: PSEL, MARI, NPL, FML, FATIMA, EFUG, NCPL, JLICL, SHEZ & SHFA
13-day Laggards: BATA, AICL, NETSOL, AVN, AKBL, DAWH, PSMC, BOP, SHEL & PICT |
| --------------------------------------------- |
| Incomplete Leg Of Correction Nearing A Bottom |
| March 25, 2015 09:38 |
| |
Short-Term:
Market failed to extend its recovery yesterday and stumbled 1.54% to settle at 31,310 level. A lower low indicates that the first leg of impulsive correction (wave A) was incomplete and market has receded to complete that cycle. In case of further weakness, the index would seek support around 31,080 —30,797 levels where aggressive traders can opt for some bargain hunting owing to the grossly daily oversold readings. We still believe that a relief rally in Wave B is pending that can allow a recovery towards 32,070 and 32,892 levels even if general outlook remains bearish.
General Outlook:
After marking the fifth intermediate degree top at Feb’15 high of 35,055 level, market continues weaken in the first impulsive corrective sequence, marked as A. We expect market to soon register a relief rally in B to retrace some portion of recent fall. After such an upwards adjustment we can expect the market diving in second round of bearish spell to much deeper correction in wave C which can possibly push the index below Dec’14 low of 30,562 level towards 29,392 level, projected by mid of May’15. Wait for a bottom!
13-day Leaders: FATIMA, PSEL, MLCF, NPL, FCCL, KAPCO, AHCL, HUBC, MARI & FML
13-day Laggards: PAKT, MCB, JSCL, DAWH, AVN, AICL, SHEL, POL, AKBL & BATA |
| --------------------------------------------- |
| Don’t Panic! |
| March 19, 2015 08:39 |
| |
Short-Term:
Shocking many complacent bulls, the benchmark KSE tanked 3.21% during the session yesterday and settled 2.59% lower at 31,524 level by the session end. This fall has pushed the 14-day RSI (22.26) into deeply oversold readings with the index hitting 31,555 support level yesterday, which we have been targeting in earlier issues. There is no reason to panic at current levels as even if market remains in an intermediate bearish mode a relief rally is on cards to retrace some portion of recent bearish spell as sub counts of wave A impulsive correction are approaching the maturity phase. In case of further deterioration, the index would seek support around 31,080 —30,797 levels. Aggressive short-term traders can opt for some bargain hunting partially at 31,555 and 31,080 — 30,797 levels, seeking a recovery towards 32,416 — 32,892 levels in wave B. While the intermediate investors should wait for a recovery in wave B to reduce exposure on strength instead of throwing away stocks at grossly oversold momentum.
General Outlook:
Extent of recent weakness suggests that the index has possibly marked the third primary degree top at Feb’15 high of 35,055 level, where we have marked the fifth intermediate degree impulse as (5). Market is approaching the exhaustion point of first corrective sequence which has eroded 10.61% of value, marked as A. We expect market to soon register a relief rally to retrace some portion of recent fall in wave B. After such an upwards adjustment we can expect the market diving in second round of bearish spell to much deeper correction in wave C possibly below Dec’14 low of 30,562 level towards 29,392 level, projected by mid of May’15.
13-day Leaders: FATIMA, PSEL, HUBC, KAPCO, CHCC, NCPL, INDU, FML, TRG & NPL
13-day Laggards: JSCL, ABOT, PAKT, BATA, AVN, GATM, SHEL, MUREB & PACE |
| --------------------------------------------- |
| First Leg Of Correction Nearing An Exhaustion Point |
| March 18, 2015 09:07 |
| |
Short-Term:
Resistance around 32,892 level snapped a three-day recovery on Monday and forced the index down to register a lower low yesterday. In the process, the 14-day RSI (30.26) failed to mark a lower low, plotting a positive divergence at daily oversold readings. We expect exhaustion in ensuing first leg of correction (wave A) as the index approaches a support within 31,615 — 31,555 levels. Any recovery from the aforementioned support area can allow a relief towards 32,892 level. However, intermediate theme would still remain bearish, sighting possibility for much deeper correction in wave C after such a short-term recovery.
13-day Leaders: PSEL, FATIMA, TRG, CHCC, HUBC, SSGC, FABL, INDU, AHCL & NCPL
13-day Laggards: JSCL, ABOT, PAKT, BATA, SHEZ, MCB, AVN, AICL, DAWH & GATM |
| --------------------------------------------- |
| Upwards Relief Likely To Be Short-lived |
| March 16, 2015 09:26 |
| |
Short-Term:
Extending recovery for the third straight session from oversold 14-day RSI readings, the benchmark KSE retraced 23.6% of its fall (35,055 to 32,198) at 32,873 level on Friday. Any additional strength would counter resistance around 33,198 — 33,290 levels, coinciding with the 38.2% retracement. However, intermediate theme continues to appear corrective where the market can fall to much deeper 31,615 — 31,555 levels as long as resistance around 34,143 level is intact. Wait for a bottom!
13-day Leaders: PSEL, INDU, FATIMA, FABL, HUMNL, CHCC, TRG, PSMC, SSGC & DGKC
13-day Laggards: ABOT, SHEZ, JSCL, BATA, MCB, PAKT, DAWH, JLICL & AVN |
| --------------------------------------------- |
| Relief Likely From Grossly Oversold Conditions |
| March 13, 2015 09:03 |
| |
Short-Term:
Amid grossly oversold 14-day RSI readings (27.70), the index formed a small hammer formation at 32,198 level on Wednesday. This can allow an upwards relief towards 32,892 to 33,208 levels. However, intermediate theme continues to appear corrective where the market can fall to much deeper 31,615 — 31,555 levels as long as resistance around 34,143 level is intact. Wait for a bottom!
13-day Leaders: PSEL, FABL, INDU, HUMNL, FATIMA, SSGC, KAPCO, CHCC, PSMC & DGKC
13-day Laggards: ABOT, SHEZ, JSCL, SEARL, ARPL, PAKT, GATM, PCAL, MCB, PACE & PKGS |
| --------------------------------------------- |
| Relief Likely From Grossly Oversold Conditions |
| March 12, 2015 08:50 |
| |
Short-Term:
Amid grossly oversold 14-day RSI readings (26.10), the index formed a small hammer formation at 32,198 level yesterday. This can allow an upwards relief towards 32,892 to 33,208 levels. However, intermediate theme continues to appear corrective where the market can fall to much deeper 31,615 — 31,555 levels as long as resistance around 34,143 level is intact. Wait for a bottom!
13-day Leaders: PSEL, FABL, INDU, COLG, SSGC, HUMNL, NPL, KAPCO, HUBC & DGKC
13-day Laggards: ABOT, JSCL, SHEZ, ARPL, AVN, SEARL, GATM, PCAL, ISL & PAKT |
| --------------------------------------------- |
| Day Wrap |
| March 10, 2015 16:49 |
| |
| the market continued to trade under selling pressure from the FI's. Little interest was seen by the local investors as they await the outcome of the recent SECP measures taken to implement market reforms. Reports if an increase in gas prices from Apr01 did not gone down well with investors and saw the fertilizer (FFC, EFERT, FFBL & FATIMA), Cement (LUCK, MLCF & DGKC.) & Textile sector come under selling pressure. |
| --------------------------------------------- |
| Recovery Attempt Aborted |
| March 10, 2015 09:06 |
| |
Short-Term:
After completing the minimum 23.6% retracement of recent descend at 33,341 level last week, the benchmark KSE receded to retest 32,892 — 32,811 levels yesterday. In the process, the 14-day RSI (30.45) registered a lower low approaching the oversold readings amid falling volume. Expect further weakness towards 32,581 level with immediate resistance clustered around 33,178 — 33,208 levels seen capping any recovery attempt. On an intermediate degree, market can fall to much deeper 31,615 — 31,555 levels as long as resistance around 34,143 level is intact. Wait for a bottom!
13-day Leaders: NPL, INDU, FFBL, FABL, NCPL, PSEL, HUMNL, SSGC, ENGRO & FFC
13-day Laggards: SHEZ, ABOT, SEARL, JSCL, JLICL, PAKT, PACE, PCAL, ARPL & PKGS |
| --------------------------------------------- |
| Day Wrap |
| March 9, 2015 16:24 |
| |
KSE 100 closed -1.17% with a traded value of US$ 43.03mn. Market remained under pressure for most part of the day with vols. on the lower side due to lack of near term +ve triggers. Cements remained under pressure as the word is that South Africa may impose anti-dumping on imports into the country. LUCK DGKC, ACPL & DCL exports to South Africa will be affected. Selling continued in the banking names as the market expects another rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy.
Result Announcement:
Dawood Hercules Corp. Ltd. (DAWH) -0.50% (104.47) posts standalone CY14 earnings of PKR 1.79/share vs. PKR 0.89/share during the same period last year. On a consolidated basis earnings clocked in lower at PKR 6.18/share vs. PKR 7.17/share. The result was accompanied by a 10% payout. Board of directorS have also decided to enter into a share purchase agreement with Pak Arab Fertilizer to sell the entire shareholding of DH Fertilizers Ltd.
Expect market to remain choppy in the next few sessions in absence of any immediate triggers. Despite near term pressure things look good in the longer run. |
| --------------------------------------------- |
| Recovery Lacking Impulse |
| March 9, 2015 09:02 |
| |
Short-Term:
Recovery from mildly oversold momentum completed the minimum 23.6% retracement of recent descend at 33,341 level last week. Any additional strength can allow further recovery towards the 38.2% and 50% retracements at 33,669 and 33,933 levels, respectively. In the process, the 14-day RSI can recover up to 55 to 65 readings. However, extent of last fall from 35,055 to 32,811 levels (marked as A) hints that market might have entered an intermediate degree correction and could fall further below 32,892 — 32,811 levels towards 31,555 level in the second leg of correction after ensuing recovery in wave B. Therefore, traders are advised to focus on short-term trades only while the intermediate investors may lower exposure on upwards retracement towards 33,933 to 34,198 levels, awaiting further signals. Lock profits on strength in cements, hold banks while accumulating oil, fertilizer, textile and insurance sectors on dips.
13-day Leaders: NPL, FFBL, INDU, HUMNL, SSGC, NCPL, ENGRO, PSEL, FFC and FFBL
13-day Laggards: SHEZ, ABOT, JSCL, PAKT, EFUL, ARPL, SEARL, KTML, MARI & PCAL |
| --------------------------------------------- |
